Tag: Future planning

  • What future is on the cards? A new way to help you take action now

    What future is on the cards? A new way to help you take action now

    We are famously poor at predicting the future.

    In the 1950s, the view of the 2020s was all about jet packs, hover boards, moonbases, humanoid robots and flying cars. And while there’s progress on these technologies, we’ve not caught up with the promises of science-fiction.

    And we are not just poor at predicting future technology. We’ve proven to be poor judges of social change, as we are influenced by our self-reference and hopes:

    “The coming of the wireless [radio] era will make war impossible, because it will make war ridiculous.”
    Guglielmo Marconi, 1912

    … and also our assumptions and biases:

    “Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop – because women like to get out of the house, like to handle the merchandise, like to be able to change their minds.”
    Time Magazine, 1966

    All this means that when it comes to preparing ourselves for the future of our work and our careers, our imagination is often limited. We tend to either focus on a future which is largely a projection of current trends, or we are fixated by the future that we want to happen. And when we get one idea, it is hard to put it out of our mind and think of an alternative.

    You can see this tendency in the Futures Cone, developed by Joseph Voros. The future is like shining a torchlight onto a wall. The further away the wall, the less light hits it – and as you move away from the centre of the beam, the clarity falls off. But Voros argues that we don’t spend enough time thinking about the outer edges, where the future is possible or even preposterous – and that’s where really disruptive change sits.

    Let’s think about an example we all know – mobile phones… the first phones were huge with short batteries, limited functionality and restricted to the business world.

    • It was reasonable to assume that in the future they would be smaller and more useful [projection].
    • If they became smaller and cheaper, they would probably become more widespread, so there could be less need for traditional phone boxes [plausible].
    • But if you were a manufacturer of compact cameras you would not have thought that in the near future mobile phones would add functionality that totally destroys your market [preposterous].

    So when I had the opportunity to deliver a masterclass to high-potential, early-career civil servants recently, I split them into groups and dealt them some cards to help them see the future.

    No, not tarot cards, but cards from my Futures Cards deck. I handed each group three cards about future change in technology, economics and either politics or the environment. And a chance card to make things even more interesting.

    I asked them several Inquiry Questions:

    • What would society look like in this future?
    • What would people do for money?
    • What would they eat?
    • Where would they live?
    • Who would have power?

    Deep discussions followed, with different interpretations, ideas and considerations emerging rapidly.

    I then swapped two of their cards for new ones, and asked them how society would be different with these factors changed.

    In this way they developed futures that were richer and more varied than if they had imagined them unaided, or explored each idea singly. They were engaging with the possible and the preposterous, not the preferred and the projected. But that’s not the endpoint of this activity.

    Then I asked the crucial Action Question:

    What skills, knowledge or experience would you need to be successful in your career, that would apply to more than one of these different futures?

    This is the value of exploring different futures – to identify actions that you can take now that will be helpful in whatever version of the future comes along.

    On this occasion I also asked participants to imagine a range of potential futures just 3 years away – the end of their graduate development programme – and to decide on some steps they could proactively take now which will serve them and their careers, no matter which version of the future happens.

    What future is on your cards?

    This is an exercise I’ve used in universities, with leadership groups, managers and now civil servants, for strategy development, operational forecasting, and for career planning. In each case, they’ve identified common steps they can take now to prepare for multiple potential futures.

    I add bespoke cards – both themes and content – to the deck to ensure they are relevant for the audience, but part of the value of the activity is being confronted with issues and ideas from outside your area of immediate concern.

    I also tailor the Inquiry Questions and the Action Questions to ensure they help the group achieve the focus they want, and create a meaningful action plan.

    If you want to know more about using the Futures Cards deck to examine how you and your team can prime yourselves for the future, click on the button below to get in touch.

  • A new approach for future-planning: look out for aggressive polar bears

    A new approach for future-planning: look out for aggressive polar bears

    Forecasters and future-planners have used the analogies of black swans and grey rhinos for some years now. I suggest we need to introduce the ‘aggressive polar bear’ to reflect the complexity of upcoming change.


    The start of the year sees a multitude of posts and papers which set out “2024’s expected workplace trends”. And after the upheavals of recent years, there’s plenty of interesting ideas about making the best use of Artificial Intelligence, the continued tensions over remote and hybrid working, the potential for political change and fears for international relations.

    But what if you want to prepare yourself for the medium and longer-term future?

    One of the key ideas in forecasting and future-planning is the Black Swan. Introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, these are highly rare and unpredictable events – but which have massive impacts. Most people won’t have prepared adequately for these uncommon catastrophic events – such as financial crises, pandemics, or paradigm-shifting innovations.

    Shortly after this, Michele Wucker introduced the idea of Gray Rhinos. These are not rare, and can be seen from afar. We roughly know their shape, size and how they might act. But because of this familiarity we don’t pay them enough attention – until they are charging towards us.

    But if recent years have taught us anything, it is that the trickiest situations are those generated by multiple interacting factors or chain reactions.

    So we’d like to introduce the Aggressive Polar Bear.

    Why polar bears you may ask, and specifically, why an ‘aggressive’ one?

    In recent years scientists have been reporting a rise of polar bears being aggressive towards humans.

    One of the reasons is that increased tourism means that polar bears are less scared of humans than before – so less likely to avoid settlements or be deterred by noise.

    And then there’s climate change, which impacts in two ways.

    Warmer oceans means fewer fish – affecting the entire food chain and meaning the apex predator – the polar bear – goes hungry.

    Shrinking ice floes mean polar bears have to spend more time on land.

    These interacting and cumulative factors lead to increased numbers of polar bears coming into contact with humans, with hunger-driven aggression.

    What lessons can we take from this when it comes to future planning?

    An aggressive polar bear event is one caused by the interaction of a number of factors, so they are difficult to identify. We recommend a number of structured questioning approaches:

    • Think about scenarios, not predictions. We’re looking at what might happen, and how you could react to it. By working with multiple scenarios, you can identify which actions have cross-cutting value.
    • Use Five What Ifs? You’ll probably be familiar with drilling down into root causes using Five Whys – so widen your thinking instead by asking Five What Ifs.
    • Think big picture. What are the global and regional trends, and how could they impact on your business model? For instance, wide-ranging economic, social and ecological factors could affect your customers, your suppliers and your stakeholders in ways that creates a chain reaction that affects you.