Forecasters and future-planners have used the analogies of black swans and grey rhinos for some years now. I suggest we need to introduce the ‘aggressive polar bear’ to reflect the complexity of upcoming change.
The start of the year sees a multitude of posts and papers which set out “2024’s expected workplace trends”. And after the upheavals of recent years, there’s plenty of interesting ideas about making the best use of Artificial Intelligence, the continued tensions over remote and hybrid working, the potential for political change and fears for international relations.
But what if you want to prepare yourself for the medium and longer-term future?
One of the key ideas in forecasting and future-planning is the Black Swan. Introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, these are highly rare and unpredictable events – but which have massive impacts. Most people won’t have prepared adequately for these uncommon catastrophic events – such as financial crises, pandemics, or paradigm-shifting innovations.
Shortly after this, Michele Wucker introduced the idea of Gray Rhinos. These are not rare, and can be seen from afar. We roughly know their shape, size and how they might act. But because of this familiarity we don’t pay them enough attention – until they are charging towards us.
But if recent years have taught us anything, it is that the trickiest situations are those generated by multiple interacting factors or chain reactions.
So we’d like to introduce the Aggressive Polar Bear.
Why polar bears you may ask, and specifically, why an ‘aggressive’ one?
In recent years scientists have been reporting a rise of polar bears being aggressive towards humans.
One of the reasons is that increased tourism means that polar bears are less scared of humans than before – so less likely to avoid settlements or be deterred by noise.
And then there’s climate change, which impacts in two ways.
Warmer oceans means fewer fish – affecting the entire food chain and meaning the apex predator – the polar bear – goes hungry.
Shrinking ice floes mean polar bears have to spend more time on land.
These interacting and cumulative factors lead to increased numbers of polar bears coming into contact with humans, with hunger-driven aggression.
What lessons can we take from this when it comes to future planning?
An aggressive polar bear event is one caused by the interaction of a number of factors, so they are difficult to identify. We recommend a number of structured questioning approaches:
- Think about scenarios, not predictions. We’re looking at what might happen, and how you could react to it. By working with multiple scenarios, you can identify which actions have cross-cutting value.
- Use Five What Ifs? You’ll probably be familiar with drilling down into root causes using Five Whys – so widen your thinking instead by asking Five What Ifs.
- Think big picture. What are the global and regional trends, and how could they impact on your business model? For instance, wide-ranging economic, social and ecological factors could affect your customers, your suppliers and your stakeholders in ways that creates a chain reaction that affects you.